Rain or Shine Aims to Level Series Against TNT in Crucial Game 4 Showdown

Guiao’s Squad Looks to Sustain Momentum and Rewrite the Narrative

The Rain or Shine Elasto Painters are on the brink of rewriting the script of their ongoing PBA Philippine Cup semifinals matchup against the powerhouse TNT Tropang Giga. After a statement victory in Game 3, the Elasto Painters are determined to carry that momentum into Game 4, set for Wednesday at the SM Mall of Asia Arena.

With the best-of-seven series now standing at 2-1 in favor of TNT, Rain or Shine is not just eyeing a comeback — they’re targeting redemption after back-to-back semifinal exits at the hands of the same opponent. For Coach Yeng Guiao, this is more than just another game; it’s a pivotal moment that could shift the trajectory of the entire series — and perhaps even the franchise’s future in the conference.

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A Chance to Shift the Balance

Game 3 as a Turning Point

Rain or Shine’s 107-86 rout in Game 3 wasn’t just a win — it was a statement. From the opening tip-off, the Elasto Painters dictated the tempo, showcasing defensive discipline, offensive fluidity, and most importantly, relentless energy.

Coach Yeng Guiao praised his team’s performance but stressed the need to keep the foot on the gas.

“Our best chance is to make this series long. If it becomes a short series, talo kami,” Guiao emphasized after Game 3.
“At least nanalo kami ngayon, we know it’s going to be five games. If we win again, it goes to six. That’s our best chance.”

Guiao understands that beating a team as loaded and disciplined as TNT requires sustained pressure, strategic execution, and psychological resilience. He isn’t banking on luck — he’s betting on longevity.

TNT’s Star Power Dimmed by Injury

Pogoy’s Absence and Its Ripple Effect

TNT’s Roger Pogoy, one of the league’s most explosive scorers, continues to sit out with a hamstring injury, aggravated during Game 2. The guard, who dropped 28 points in Game 1, has been a major factor in TNT’s playoff dominance. His absence has noticeably tilted the balance.

Coach Chot Reyes is clearly concerned, not just about Pogoy’s availability but about his team’s ability to compensate for the loss.

“Rain or Shine came out and wanted the game so much more. They were a little more aggressive. We were not able to match it,” said Reyes.

That aggression translated into better offensive opportunities and more trips to the free-throw line for Rain or Shine, a stark contrast to TNT’s own performance. In Game 3, TNT was awarded a measly three free throws. Meanwhile, the Elasto Painters got to the line 18 times and converted 16 — a critical efficiency that widened the score gap.

Defensive Adjustments: Key to Containing TNT

Locking Down Oftana

Rain or Shine’s ability to neutralize Calvin Oftana, another TNT weapon, was also a major factor. Oftana erupted for 39 points in Game 2, fueling TNT’s overtime win. But in Game 3, the Elasto Painters held him to just 16 points and limited his involvement, forcing the Tropang Giga to search elsewhere for offensive rhythm.

By eliminating Pogoy from the picture and containing Oftana, Rain or Shine disrupted TNT’s core offensive schemes — something that rarely happens against a Reyes-coached team.

Coach Guiao knows this defensive success must continue if they are to stand a real chance.

Guiao’s Long View: Breaking the Trend

Learning from the Past

Rain or Shine has been down this road before — and it hasn’t ended well. In their two previous semifinal encounters with TNT, the series concluded with 4-1 outcomes — both in favor of the Tropang Giga. Guiao is intent on making sure history doesn’t repeat itself.

“After playing TNT three times in the semis, we know what it takes. They’re very competitive, very disciplined,” Guiao remarked.
“It’s like facing a double-barreled shotgun — Pogoy and Oftana. Their sheer talent alone can take over a game.”

That said, Guiao sees Game 4 as a turning point — a chance to finally break the pattern.

“We feel that if we can break through, pag nanalo kami sa Wednesday, ibig sabihin nag-improve na kami.”

In Guiao’s eyes, a Game 4 win not only levels the series but also symbolizes progress — a clear indicator that the team is evolving and learning from its past postseason stumbles.

Keys to Game 4: What Rain or Shine Must Do

1. Sustain Aggression Early

Game 3’s tone was set in the first quarter, where Rain or Shine pounced early and never looked back. Expect the same approach in Game 4. High energy, sharp defense, and efficient offense will be crucial in avoiding a slow start — something that can be deadly against a TNT team capable of explosive runs.

2. Maintain Defensive Focus on TNT’s Core

Neutralizing Calvin Oftana again, especially in the continued absence of Pogoy, will be critical. Forcing the other TNT players to take tougher shots and disrupting their offensive flow should remain a top priority.

3. Efficient Free-Throw Shooting

Rain or Shine’s improved performance at the stripe (16-of-18) in Game 3 played a big role in the win. In contrast, their Game 2 struggles at the line (20-of-34) were part of what allowed TNT to claw back. Shooting efficiency, especially under pressure, will be vital moving forward.

4. Depth and Bench Contribution

Without a singular offensive star dominating every game, Rain or Shine has to rely on collective effort. Balanced scoring and steady bench production will be important to keep legs fresh and energy high over what may be a long series.

The Stakes: More Than Just a Game

For TNT, Game 4 is a chance to regain control, push Rain or Shine to the brink, and inch closer to another PBA Finals appearance. But for Rain or Shine, it’s far more than that — it’s a battle to prove they belong, to finally exorcise the ghosts of past semifinals, and to show growth under Coach Guiao’s leadership.

This is not merely a must-win. It’s a legacy-defining moment for a franchise trying to break free from the shadow of its more successful rivals.

Coach Yeng Guiao’s Belief in Process

Mentality Over Momentum

Guiao’s coaching philosophy has always revolved around resilience, accountability, and taking control of your own destiny. He’s not one to sugarcoat failures or ride emotional highs blindly.

“Wednesday is the big game,” he said. “If we win, it means we’ve improved.”

That one line encapsulates the heart of Rain or Shine’s journey — an honest, hard-fought attempt not just to win a basketball series, but to grow as a team and as competitors.

TNT’s Roadblocks and Adjustments Ahead

Coach Reyes’s Next Moves

Chot Reyes, on the other hand, knows adjustments must be made. Whether Pogoy suits up or not, the team needs to reassert its identity as an aggressive, inside-out, free-flowing offensive team. That will require more than just tweaking the playbook — it will demand mental recalibration from the players themselves.

Reyes’s frustration in Game 3 wasn’t solely about missed shots or defensive lapses — it was about a lack of fire.

“They wanted it more,” Reyes said candidly.

If TNT wants to keep its finals hopes alive and avoid falling into a 2-2 deadlock, they’ll need to match — or exceed — the energy that Rain or Shine is now bringing.

What to Watch in Game 4

• Will Pogoy return? Even at less than 100%, his presence could significantly boost TNT’s morale and on-court options.

• Can Oftana bounce back? Another subdued outing could make TNT overly reliant on its bench.

• Will Rain or Shine’s intensity carry over? A fast start might be essential to replicate the Game 3 result.

• Coaching chess match — The strategies employed by Guiao and Reyes, both seasoned tacticians, will be crucial in shaping the outcome.

 

The Series is Heating Up

With Game 4 looming large, both Rain or Shine and TNT find themselves at a crucial juncture in the series. For one team, it’s a chance to build on an inspired resurgence. For the other, it’s a test of grit, strategy, and championship mettle.

Regardless of the outcome, one thing is certain — this semifinal clash is living up to its billing as a high-stakes, emotionally charged battle between two proud franchises.

Rain or Shine has the momentum. TNT has the pedigree. Game 4 is more than just another contest — it’s the war before the war.