Clash of the Unbeatens: China vs. New Zealand in the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Semi-Finals

Introduction: A Battle of Giants in Jeddah

The stage is set in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup Semi-Finals promise to deliver one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament. Two unbeaten teams, China and New Zealand, will collide in a high-stakes encounter that will decide who moves on to the championship game.

Both sides have battled adversity, survived close calls, and shown resilience throughout the competition. Now, with both holding spotless 4-0 records, only one will walk away with a chance to lift the trophy. For China, the mission is clear: reclaim past glory and remind Asia of their basketball dominance. For New Zealand, the goal is historic: secure their first-ever Asia Cup Final berth and cement their status as a rising force.

China’s Journey: Power, Tradition, and Redemption

China entered the Asia Cup as one of the traditional powerhouses, carrying the weight of history and expectation. Their campaign began with a nervy victory against host nation Saudi Arabia. The pressure of opening night was evident, but the Chinese squad showed composure, leaning on their size advantage to squeeze out the win.

From there, they steadied themselves and swept Group C, demonstrating improved chemistry and balance. The Quarter-Final against Korea was their true test, rekindling one of Asia’s fiercest rivalries. In a tightly contested battle, China’s physicality and timely outside shooting gave them the edge, securing their place in the semi-finals.

The Dynamic Duo: Hu Jinqiu and Wang Junjie

The heart of China’s success lies in their dominant frontcourt pairing.

• Hu Jinqiu, a consistent double-double machine, has been among the tournament’s most efficient performers. Ranking fifth in overall efficiency, Hu has scored in double figures and grabbed double-digit rebounds in nearly every game. His presence in the paint is not only a scoring threat but also a defensive anchor.

• Wang Junjie has emerged as the perfect complement. His standout performance against Korea (21 points, 7 rebounds, 3 triples) showcased his versatility. Together, they form the backbone of what fans have dubbed the “Great Wall” inside.

China’s reliance on their big men is no secret, but their ability to stretch defenses with outside shooting makes them even more dangerous. Shooting 40% from three-point range as a team, they can punish opponents who collapse inside.

 

New Zealand’s Road: Resilience and Grit

The Tall Blacks’ path to the semi-finals has been nothing short of dramatic. Known for their grit and physical style of play, New Zealand have embodied the “bend but don’t break” mentality throughout the tournament.

Their toughest challenge in the group stage came against the Philippines, a scrappy squad that pushed them to the limit. New Zealand managed to grind out a narrow win, showcasing their poise in crunch time.

But the defining moment of their campaign came in the Quarter-Finals against Lebanon. Trailing by 22 points, New Zealand mounted the biggest comeback of the tournament, stunning fans and opponents alike. Their resilience and ability to stay calm under immense pressure highlight why they are one of the most dangerous teams in Jeddah.

Key Figures for the Tall Blacks

New Zealand does not boast the same towering frontline as China, but their roster is full of fighters.

• Max Darling, Tohi Smith-Milner, and Carlin Davison have been tasked with the unenviable job of defending bigger opponents. Their physicality and willingness to battle in the trenches keep the Tall Blacks competitive on the glass.

• Against Lebanon, they struggled on the boards (out-rebounded 40–35), but their guard play and shooting bailed them out.

With an average of 11.0 made three-pointers per game at 36.4% accuracy, New Zealand thrives when their perimeter game clicks. Their ability to space the floor and hit from deep could be the great equalizer against China’s interior dominance.

The Rebounding Battle: A Decisive Factor

Basketball often comes down to fundamentals, and in this semi-final, the battle of the boards may be the difference between victory and defeat.

• New Zealand have been statistically the second-best rebounding team in the tournament. However, their slip against Lebanon exposed a vulnerability that China will look to exploit.

• China, on the other hand, average fewer rebounds overall but completely dominated Korea in the Quarters, pulling down 49 boards to Korea’s 38. With Hu controlling the paint, they are capable of outworking even stronger rebounding teams.

If New Zealand can neutralize Hu Jinqiu and Wang Junjie inside, they have a chance. If not, China’s size and effort on the glass may simply overwhelm them.

Perimeter Shooting: The X-Factor

While the paint battle will be fierce, the game may ultimately be decided beyond the arc.

• China rank second in three-point shooting percentage at 40.0%, averaging 10.5 triples per game. Their balance between inside dominance and outside accuracy makes them extremely difficult to defend.

• New Zealand are not far behind, hitting 36.4% from deep with 11 triples per game. Their volume shooting and ability to get hot quickly give them a chance to swing momentum in their favor.

If either team catches fire from deep, it could tilt the outcome. Expect both sides to test their perimeter touch early to see who has the shooting edge.

Historical Context: First-Ever Asia Cup Meeting

This semi-final carries added intrigue because it marks the first-ever Asia Cup meeting between China and New Zealand.

On the global stage, however, the two nations are no strangers. They have clashed in various FIBA competitions, with New Zealand holding a narrow 4–3 edge in their all-time series. That historical balance adds another layer of unpredictability to the matchup.

For China, a win would be another step in restoring their dominance in Asian basketball. For New Zealand, victory would mark a milestone, proving they belong among the continent’s elite.

What’s at Stake: Legacy vs. History

At its core, this semi-final is about more than just a spot in the championship game.

• For China, it’s about legacy. They are former champions hungry to return to the final and reclaim their status as Asia’s standard-bearer. Anything less than a championship would feel like a missed opportunity.

• For New Zealand, it’s about history. Still relatively new to the Asia Cup after joining the competition in recent years, reaching their first-ever final would be a landmark achievement. It would signal their rise as a force not just in Oceania but across the entire Asian basketball landscape.

 

Prediction: A Battle of Contrasts

Predicting a winner in this clash is no easy task. Both teams have proven their resilience, both remain unbeaten, and both bring contrasting strengths.

• China will rely on size, efficiency, and disciplined execution.

• New Zealand will counter with grit, energy, and perimeter firepower.

If the game is played inside the paint, China likely has the edge. If it turns into a shootout, New Zealand’s chances increase dramatically. Either way, fans should expect a bruising, high-intensity battle in Jeddah.

 

Only One Can Remain Unbeaten

The FIBA Asia Cup 2025 has already given fans unforgettable moments, and the semi-final between China and New Zealand promises to add another chapter. With both teams unbeaten, the stakes could not be higher.

For China, it’s a chance to reclaim glory. For New Zealand, it’s a chance to make history. Only one unbeaten record will survive, and by the final buzzer in Jeddah, the basketball world will know who has earned the right to fight for the ultimate prize.